Tornadoes which for the last 2 years have run at historic lows? Climate scientists have long predicted this.”

Milton B says: “Unless the climate magically changes so that the variance of every statistic decreases everywhere, we will see more extreme events. Climate scientists have long predicted this. Unless the climate magically changes so that the variance of every statistic decreases everywhere, we will see more extreme events. You seem to find such an assertion exasperating, but I find people who conflate means and extreme values even more exasperating. So it is absolutely expected that if the climate **changes**, we will see more extreme values (both higher and lower) regardless whether the mean of the values are increasing (temperature) or decreasing (snowfall). You should expect to see both higher and lower extreme values than you did before even though the mean has decreased. What do you expect? On average, samples from the distribution will be smaller, but the variations from the mean will be greater. Now suppose you **change** the distribution so that the mean decreases but the standard deviation increases. If we take samples of this statistic (like choosing a snowfall total for a given year) on average it will be the mean, but individual values will deviate from the mean by an amount proportional to the standard deviation. Imagine a statistic (annual snowfall for example) that has a given mean and standard deviation. You don’t seem to grasp the most basic concept of mean and variation. You repeatedly display an alarming lack of understanding of statistics for somebody who has a PhD in science. The current state of climate science - or maybe I should say, how scientists have allowed the media and politicians to portray it - is a continuing source of embarrassment to some of us. Is it any wonder that the public is increasingly dismissive of what we climate scientists say?Ī PhD and a computer have, so far, been insufficient tools to provide useful predictions of the future of our climate system. Everything that happens is folded into it, resulting in an endless list of absurd, and often contradictory, claims about the things that global warming / climate change causes.

You see, this is the trouble with global warming theory. I will guarantee you - global warming would have also been blamed. So, I ask, what would have been blamed if Boston (or New England in general) had received record low snow amounts this winter? Or, if the same region had seen record warmth, rather than record cold? Those cities should also be experiencing more snow if global warming is to blame. If the Boston snows have been the result of global warming, how do we explain the long-term decrease in Washington DC snowfall?… The popular meme is that this is just one more example of human-caused climate change.īut unless you are in elementary school, or just don’t pay attention to what scientists or Al Gore say, you will remember when global warming was going to cause less snow. By yesterday evening, Boston officially received its greatest seasonal snowfall on record, 108.6 inches.

Boston average snowfall